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Housing Supply Not Keeping Pace with Demand in Most BC Regions 
- Vancouver - June 13, 2017.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,402 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, down 7.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $9.33 billion, down 4.0 per cent from May 2017. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $752,536, a 4.2 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Market conditions have tightened considerably this spring as an upturn in consumer demand has not been accompanied by a rise in homes listed for sale," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "The supply of homes for sale in the province has fallen 50 per cent over the past five years."

"The entire southern portion of the province is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which makes continuing upward pressure on home prices inevitable, at least in the near term," added Muir. Total active listings in the province were down 11.1 per cent to 28,404 units from May 2016.
  The ratio of home sales to active listings was well over ..... Read more.

BC Commercial Leading Indicator Signals Robust Growth  - Vancouver - May 30, 2017.

Vancouver, BC –May 30, 2017. The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased for the fifth consecutive quarter, rising 0.5 index points from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017. The index now sits at 128.0, a 4 per cent increase from a year ago and a 0.4 per cent gain on a quarterly basis.

The BC economy continues to lead all provinces in both economic and employment growth, which is reflected in strong contributions from the economic activity and employment components of the
CLI. The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, continues to push higher. That uptrend signals further growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity over the next two to four quarters.

The rising CLI mirrors the overall robust trend in the provincial economy. The BC economy is on track to post a fourth consecutive year of real GDP growth exceeding 3 per cent, a feat matched only once before in the past 37 years. That growth has been led by key commercial sectors like retail wholesale trade, as well as growing manufacturing sales.
Employment in the provincial economy expanded by more than........Read more.


BC Home Sales Turn Higher, Inventories at 20-Year Low - Vancouver - May 15, 2017.

Vancouver, BC – May 15, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,865 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, down 23.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $7.19 billion, down 25.4 per cent from April 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $728,955, a 2 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“BC home sales are on an upward trend this spring, led by a sharp increase in consumer demand in the Lower Mainland,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of home sales was over 106,000 units in April, significantly above the five-year SAAR for April of 89,000 units.

The supply of homes for sale declined 17 per cent from April 2016. On a seasonally adjusted basis, active residential listings have declined 50 per cent since 2012 and are now at their lowest level in over 20 years. The imbalance between supply and demand is continuing to drive home prices higher
  in most regions, further eroding affordability..... Read more

Economy, Population Growth Support Housing Demand Through 2018  - Vancouver - February 17, 2017.

Displaying The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 14.1 per cent to 96,345 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. A moderation trend that began early in 2016, combined with tougher federal government mortgage qualification rules and the foreign buyer tax in Vancouver, is expected to limit consumer demand over the next two years. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the ten-year average of 84,700 unit sales.

“Solid fundamentals continue to underpin housing demand in the province,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “International trade, population growth and consumer confidence will be key economic drivers this year.”
Of note, net migration to the province exceeded 50,000 individuals during the first three .... Read more.

BC Home Sales Return to a Historic Average - Vancouver - February 15, 2017.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,487 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, down 23 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $2.79 billion, down 36.5 per cent from January 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $621,093, a 17.5 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“Housing demand across the province returned to long-term average levels last month,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, regional variations persist, with Victoria posting above average
performance and Vancouver falling below the average.”

‘’A marked decrease in the average MLS® residential price is largely the result of relatively more home sales occurring outside of the Lower Mainland,” added Muir.

Home sales from Vancouver fell from 43 per cent of provincial transactions in January 2016 to 35 per cent last month.
In addition, fewer detached home sales in Vancouver relative to multifamilyunits has skewed...... Read more. 

Canada Housing Market Outlook for 2017

00393_remax_2017housingmarketoutlookreport_remax-ca-blog-post-1024x512 HIGH DEMAND AND LOW SUPPLY CONTINUED TO CHARACTERIZE VANCOUVER’S AND TORONTO’S HOUSING MARKETS THROUGHOUT 2016 AS COMPETITION FROM BUYERS FOR LIMITED INVENTORY OF SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES PUSHED PRICES HIGHER.

The average residential sale price increased 13 per cent in Greater Vancouver to approximately $1,020,300 and rose 17 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to an estimated $725,857. Although demand remains high in both urban centres, limited inventory in the freehold market, the new 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax in Vancouver and the recent tightening of mortgage rules by the federal government are expected to soften market activity in the short term. In 2017, RE/MAX estimates average residential sale price will increase by two and eight per cent in Greater Vancouver and the GTA respectively.

Regional markets in close proximity to Canada’s highest-price cities continued to experience steady interest from local move-up buyers and buyers from these cities (“move-over” buyers) who are

looking to find a balance between affordability and square footage. This year there were considerable...... Read more.

Mortgage Rate Forecast - December, 2016

The Trump Effect - that all insured homebuyers qualify at the posted 5-year fixed rate. The change in qualification rules for homebuyers means that the posted 5-year rate has become much more binding and will now have a more immediate and impactful effect on mortgage demand than in the past. Additionally,
less publicized changes such as eliminating the availability of insurance on mortgages with greater than 25-year
amortizations or potential default insurance risk sharing, are putting upward pressure on rates offered by lenders.

In addition to a shake-up of mortgage rules, a shocking Presidential election in the United States could signal
a major shift in the path of long-term interest rates. The ultimate economic impact of the election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is difficult to ascertain at this point, but the consequence for interest rates depends crucially on two things. First, the implementation of a budget consistent with his campaign promises to massively increase the deficit through large tax cuts and a huge (or is that “yuge”?) program of infrastructure spending.  Secondly, that GOP lawmakers, who frequently obstructed such infrastructure spending plans by the previous administration, acquiesce

 with a Republican in the White House. If Trump’s plans are more than just empty rhetoric, the US Treasury will need to...... Read more.

BC Commercial Leading Indicator Continues to Push Higher - December 5, 2016

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased 0.48 index points to 122.7 in the second quarter of 2016, in spite of a modest pull-back in economic activity throughout the third quarter. The CLI index is up 2.4 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2015.
 
Robust third quarter employment gains in sectors that tend to lead commerical activity offset modest declines in the economic activity and components of the CLI. The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, continues to push higher due to several quarters of strong economic statistics. That uptrend signals further growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity over the next two to four quarters.

While strong growth in the economic activity component propelled the CLI higher through the first half of the year, a dip in key commerical economic activity indicators like wholesale trade and manufacturing sales were a drag on the index during the third quarter.

Following several months of mixed results, job growth turned positive across all key commercial real estate sectors. The CLI’s index of ...... Read more.

BC Home Sales to Decline in 2017 from Record Pace - November 29, 2016

Vancouver, BC – November 29, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its
2016 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 11 per cent to a
record 113,800 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Less robust economic
conditions combined with government policy constraints are expected to slow housing demand by more
than 15 per cent to 96,300 units in 2017. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the
ten-year average of 85,000 unit sales.

“Housing demand across the province is expected to moderate next year as declining affordability related to
rising prices and government policy interventions limit the number of eligible buyers,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA
Chief Economist.

“However, while home sales are not expected to repeat this year’s record performance, consumer demand is expected to remain well....... Read more.

BC Housing Demand Remains Mixed in October - November 15, 2016

Vancouver, BC – November 15, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,272 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, down 16.7 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.4 billion in October, down 24.2 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $606,787, a decline of 9.1 per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Housing demand remained mixed across the province in October,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Home sales across the Lower Mainland were down from the elevated levels of one year ago, but stabilized on a month to month basis. In contrast, home sales on Vancouver Island and in the interior of the province
continue to post strong year-over-year gains.”

“The decline in the average residential price reflects a smaller proportion of transactions in the province....... Read more.

RE/MAX Commercial Investor Report 2016 - October 2016

Image result for remax commercial solutions

Much of Western Canada continued to experience slower market activity in the first half of the year, as regional economies continued to recover from the downturn in the oil sector.

However, in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, activity was brisk and prices continued to increase significantly in the commercial property market.

“Demand for commercial property in the Vancouver area remains very high and continues to be driven mainly by local investors,” said Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada.

“Over the next several months, we may start to see more interest from foreign investors. As a result of the recent foreign

buyer tax on residential properties, buyers who are interested in investing in Greater Vancouver may start to shift their focus to....... Read more.


BCREA Housing Market Update - October2016





BCREA Mortgage Rate Forecast - Lower Forever?  September 2016

  historical low of 4.64 per cent. There are currently two primary sources of upward pressure on mortgage rates in the near term. The most immediate remains the stance of US monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve remains determined to raise its overnight rate this year, possibly as soon as its next meeting in September. While the Fed’s last rate increase had little impact on Canadian rates, the market may see a second tightening as a true shift in the Fed’s view toward future tightening.

In addition to pressure from potentially higher US rates, Canadian bank regulators have proposed stricter capital requirements to shift the burden of housing market risk away from taxpayers and onto financial institutions. That could in turn mean higher funding costs for banks and credit unions, which could be passed through to mortgage rates.

Overall, given those upward pressures, we anticipate that mortgage rates will rise from their current lows with the five-year qualifying rate reaching 5 per cent by the end of next year.
   Wildfires in Alberta were a major drag on the Canadian economy in the second quarter, prompting a 1.6 per cent contraction in real GDP, the largest.... Read more. 


BC Housing Demand Remains Strong Despite Fewer Vancouver Home Sales - September 2016

BCREA Media Release: Vancouver, BC

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 8,945 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, up 1.5 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.1 billion in August, down 6.7 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $569,393, a decline of 8.1 per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Strong housing demand across most regions of the province offset slowing home sales in Vancouver last month,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The newly introduced 15 per cent foreign buyer tax combined with the 3 per cent property transfer tax on homes over $2 million brought in earlier this year, slowed demand at the top end of the market in Vancouver last month.”
  “The decline in the average home price was due to a change in the composition and location of homes sold in the province,” added Muir. “Fewer.... Read more. 
 

BCREA Housing Forecast Update - August 2016

Record BC Home Sale Forecast Despite Vancouver Slowdown

BCREA Media Release: Vancouver, BC

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are expected to post a record 113,000 units this year, up over 10 per cent from 2015. The new 15 per cent tax on foreign national home buyers in Metro Vancouver is expected to accelerate a moderating trend in the market that began earlier in the year. However, other regions of the province are performing above expectations and largely offsetting Vancouver’s deceleration at the provincial scale. Key economic fundamentals remain supportive of above average housing demand, with BC MLS® residential sales forecast to reach 104,400 units in 2017.

The BC economy is growing at a strong pace, with the resulting surge in employment inducing elevated consumer confidence. Indicative of provincial economic performance, households are buying everything from apparel to real estate at above average levels. In addition, the competitive advantage of the low dollar has produced a banner year for tourism in many BC regions. One of the only laggards is trade, where growth in exports to the United States has barely offset a decline in exports to China and Japan. Finally, interprovincial migration to BC is on an upswing, with waning job opportunities in Alberta driving workers here.
 Housing market conditions are typically variable around the province. Northern regions are still grappling with weak commodity demand overall and.... Read more.