The average residential sale price increased 13 per cent in Greater Vancouver to approximately $1,020,300 and rose 17 per cent in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to an estimated $725,857. Although demand remains high in both urban centres, limited inventory in the freehold market, the new 15 per cent foreign-buyer tax in Vancouver and the recent tightening of mortgage rules by the federal government are expected to soften market activity in the short term. In 2017, RE/MAX estimates average residential sale price will increase by two and eight per cent in Greater Vancouver and the GTA respectively.

Regional markets in close proximity to Canada’s highest-price cities continued to experience steady interest from local move-up buyers and buyers from these cities (“move-over” buyers) who are

The Trump Effect - that all insured homebuyers qualify at the posted 5-year fixed rate. The change in qualification rules for homebuyers means that the posted 5-year rate has become much more binding and will now have a more immediate and impactful effect on mortgage demand than in the past. Additionally,
less publicized changes such as eliminating the availability of insurance on mortgages with greater than 25-year
amortizations or potential default insurance risk sharing, are putting upward pressure on rates offered by lenders.

In addition to a shake-up of mortgage rules, a shocking Presidential election in the United States could signal
a major shift in the path of long-term interest rates. The ultimate economic impact of the election of Donald Trump to the Presidency is difficult to ascertain at this point, but the consequence for interest rates depends crucially on two things. First, the implementation of a budget consistent with his campaign promises to massively increase the deficit through large tax cuts and a huge (or is that “yuge”?) program of infrastructure spending.  Secondly, that GOP lawmakers, who frequently obstructed such infrastructure spending plans by the previous administration, acquiesce

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) increased 0.48 index points to 122.7 in the second quarter of 2016, in spite of a modest pull-back in economic activity throughout the third quarter. The CLI index is up 2.4 per cent compared to the third quarter of 2015.
 
Robust third quarter employment gains in sectors that tend to lead commerical activity offset modest declines in the economic activity and components of the CLI. The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, continues to push higher due to several quarters of strong economic statistics. That uptrend signals further growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity over the next two to four quarters.

While strong growth in the economic activity component propelled the CLI higher through the first half of the year, a dip in key commerical economic activity indicators like wholesale trade and manufacturing sales were a drag on the index during the third quarter.

Vancouver, BC – November 29, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its
2016 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to climb 11 per cent to a
record 113,800 units this year, eclipsing the previous record of 106,310 units in 2005. Less robust economic
conditions combined with government policy constraints are expected to slow housing demand by more
than 15 per cent to 96,300 units in 2017. However, housing demand is expected to remain well above the
ten-year average of 85,000 unit sales.

“Housing demand across the province is expected to moderate next year as declining affordability related to
rising prices and government policy interventions limit the number of eligible buyers,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA
Chief Economist.

Vancouver, BC – November 15, 2016. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 7,272 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, down 16.7 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $4.4 billion in October, down 24.2 per cent compared to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $606,787, a decline of 9.1 per cent compared to the same month last year.

“Housing demand remained mixed across the province in October,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Home sales across the Lower Mainland were down from the elevated levels of one year ago, but stabilized on a month to month basis. In contrast, home sales on Vancouver Island and in the interior of the province
continue to post strong year-over-year gains.”

Much of Western Canada continued to experience slower market activity in the first half of the year, as regional economies continued to recover from the downturn in the oil sector.

However, in B.C.’s Lower Mainland, activity was brisk and prices continued to increase significantly in the commercial property market.

“Demand for commercial property in the Vancouver area remains very high and continues to be driven mainly by local investors,” said Elton Ash, Regional Executive Vice President, RE/MAX of Western Canada.

“Over the next several months, we may start to see more interest from foreign investors. As a result of the recent foreign

BCREA Media Release: Vancouver, BC

Record BC Home Sale Forecast Despite Vancouver Slowdown

BCREA Media Release: Vancouver, BC